The improbable U.S. Senate candidacy of Al Franken became all the more probable when Minneapolis trial attorney Mike Ciresi dropped out Monday. It's now nearly certain Franken will be the Minnesota DFL nominee to face incumbent Sen. Norm Coleman, R-Minn., in the general election in November. The one-term senator, who won with only 50 percent of the vote in 2002, has reason to worry.
Ciresi's impressive resume and deep pockets made him a qualified and formidable challenger to comedian-turned-politician Franken. But Franken was out of the gate early and has worked tirelessly to raise money and secure DFL delegate support prior to June's nominating convention. Franken's success with delegates persuaded Ciresi to hang it up.
A third candidate in the DFL race, college professor and peace activist Jack Nelson-Pallmeyer, said Ciresi's support would shift to him, but that's more hope than reality.
Thus far, Coleman has tried to characterize Franken as a carpetbagger/comedian who spent all of his adult life out of Minnesota, returning recently to seek the Senate seat. But that rap is not working among the state's Democrats. If it were, Ciresi would still be in the race.
Franken has visited every corner of the state several times in the last year. He's conducted enough one-on-one and small group sessions to convince a lot of people he is a serious, informed candidate. Coleman might try to paint Franken as a one-dimensional comic, but in a long campaign during which Minnesotans get to know Franken, the senator's strategy won't succeed.
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Whether Minnesota Democrats tapped Franken or Ciresi, Coleman is in for a tough re-election campaign. The state has tilted back to blue, as evidenced by the easy election of Sen. Amy Klobuchar in 2006, Sen. John Kerry's win during the presidential election of 2004 (Al Gore took the state in 2000), and the Democrats' ascendency in the Legislature. Even Gov. Tim Pawlenty, arguably the state's most popular Republican, has never won election by more than 50 percent of the votes (44 percent in 2002, 47 percent in 2006).
Coleman can read the political winds as well as anyone. He's been out and about reminding Minnesotans of his work for them. He's mended fences with sugar producers, many of whom were incensed by his support of a trade agreement they believed would hurt the industry. He's been consistent in his opposition to drilling for oil in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, a popular stance in Minnesota. He's opposed the Bush administration on key provisions in the new farm bill.
And no one should minimize the power of incumbency, even in what appears to be shaping up as a Democratic year. The hurdles to Coleman's re-election got higher when Ciresi all but handed the nod to Franken, but given the senator's political history, counting him out would be a mistake. -- The Forum
