I was alarmed to read last week that the experts are predicting a chocolate shortage. That’s right - gasp - a chocolate shortage. On the supply side, cocoa crops have been poor due to drought, disease and the cocoa pod borer, a tiny moth that eats cocoa pods. To compound the problem, Ebola has hit the prime cocoa producing area of the world, the West Coast of Africa, and restricted travel and closed borders have kept migrant workers from picking the crops. As a result, the price of cocoa has risen from $2,000 per ton last year to $3,400 in September. On the demand side, chocolate, which can addict users just like cigarettes, has now caught on in China and millions who had never tasted chocolate a year or two ago are now wolfing it down like - well, candy.
The shortage has already started, but it’s expected there will be a world-wide deficit of one million metric tons of the precious commodity by the year 2020. Think about it without panic if you can. The world has enough problems without a global shortage of chocolate.
How would a disaster like this play out? To start with, President Obama would probably get the blame - many still believe he was born in Ghana, and there must be some connection. After all, he was responsible for high gas prices. And now - hey, wait a minute.
Speaking of gas prices, the chocolate predicament is exactly the opposite of our current gasoline situation. Now we have almost too much gas and the price at the pump is going down daily. For those of us outside the Bakken Formation, that’s wonderful news - we can actually allow our cars to warm up now.
One of the first signs of the shortage will be that our favorite candy bars (mine are Almond Joy and Mars) will start showing up packed with cheaper ingredients, like raisins and rice crispies, to keep the costs down. Also, although you might not even notice the difference, the bars will shrink slightly, from 2 oz. to 1-3/4 oz. The price, of course, will remain the same, or go up slightly.
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As the shortage becomes more acute, I expect chocolate speculators to start filling warehouses with chocolate as the price slowly rises, then to squeeze us when we can’t stand missing our chocolate fix. The most unscrupulous among them will create chocolate ponzi investment schemes, robbing Peter to pay Paul by means of cheating widows, orphans and eventually, charities.
The impact will be world-wide. The top four chocolate producing nations of the worl - the U.S., Germany, Switzerland and Belgium - will experience economic slowdowns and unemployment. The top chocolate eating country in the world, England, will have to get by on tea and crumpets. Yes, crumpets - have you eaten a styrofoam wafer? The Brits are going to be grumpy.
Shipments of chocolate are going to be hijacked on the high seas by Somali pirates and you can expect to see some old fashioned train robberies by bandits, not on horses, but on motorcycles, in this country. It will seem like the wild west again.
Diets will change of course. Clever folks will come up with what they call “chocolate substitutes” made of beans, and it won’t be the same. Soybeans will never take the place of cocoa beans, any more than soy can take the place of bacon.
But the chief victims will be the most innocent among us - our children. They will end up with baskets on May Day and Easter with nuts, popcorn, granola and little fruit cups. They will be healthier, but certainly not happier, and when you rob children of their happiness, you steal innocence from the future of America. What to do? Give a kid a candy bar and tell them to save it for the tougher days ahead.
